We’re in the homestretch of the regular season now. Three games ahead. No bye weeks between. UMHB’s playoff fate will be determined in the three weeks to come, as The Cru plays a pair of high-caliber league opponents on the road on each of the next two Saturdays before closing the regular season in Belton against Howard Payne.
ETBU is UMHB’s opponent on Saturday, an up-and-coming team that has new coordinators on both offense and defense, and very much has the capability to stay on pace with the Crusaders. When they met in Belton just four weeks ago on Oct. 5, UMHB led 27-14 at halftime, only to go down 28-27 early in the final quarter. A favorable turn of events saw The Cru score twice in less than a minute with under five minutes remaining, as UMHB emerged with a 42-28 victory.
It’ll be tougher to do that kind of thing on the road, where ETBU is sure to have a large crowd and has the benefit of already playing the Crusaders once this year. Of course, that goes both ways, considering UMHB certainly took away some tidbits from the first meeting that can be used against the Tigers. As the season has progressed, both ETBU and UMHB have evolved. The Tigers are running the ball more. UMHB has a new quarterback starting under center. And as a result, this game could play out in a far different way than the first one, though the competitiveness of the matchup should be no different. Logan Hansen’s model predicts the game’s spread at 11.5 with UMHB holding a 77% win probability.
Notably, this marks the first time since 2018 that The Cru will face one opponent twice in the same season. While the Crusaders have never played a team on two occasions during the regular season—that is a first—there have been a handful of instances in which The Cru met a regular season opponent in the postseason, with the first coming in a 42-28 win over Hardin-Simmons in the second round in 2004.
With Saturday’s matchup in Marshall on tap, here is our comprehensive game preview. This week’s featured sponsor is Duke Realty.
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Quick Facts
Kickoff time: 1 p.m. CT
Place: Marshall, Texas (Ornelas Stadium)
Records: ETBU (4-2, 1-2 ASC), UMHB (3-2, 2-1 ASC)
Follow the Action
WATCH: The game will be broadcasted live on ETBU+ on etbutigers.com.
LISTEN: Ward Whites (play-by-play) and Jordan Cox (color commentary) will have the call over the airwaves (and on the UMHB broadcast). The game can be heard locally on KMIL105.1 FM. Fans outside of the local area can listen live at cruathletics.com/listen.
STATS: Live stats are available on etbutigers.com.
All-time series history
UMHB is 22-1 all-time against ETBU, having won each of the last 19 meetings. The Tigers’ lone win against The Cru came in 2003 by a 28-21 score in Belton. The Cru is a perfect 11-0 in games played in Marshall, and will be playing at Ornelas Stadium for the first time since 2022.
The closest game between the two in Marshall came during the spring season in 2021, when UMHB escaped the upset in a 30-28 victory. ETBU took a 28-27 lead with 7:34 remaining, but a lengthy 13-play, 42-yard drive ended in a go-ahead 37-yard field goal from Anthony Avila to give UMHB the win.
A look at The Cru
UMHB comes off an open date, ready for the final stretch of the regular season as The Cru remains in the hunt for the ASC title. Currently ranked No. 27 nationally in NPI — the selection system used to determine at-large selection into the D3 playoffs — UMHB would earn the No. 5 at-large bid if the season ended today. With 12 at-large bids in the 40-team tournament, The Cru is in a solid position for the time being, but the pressure is on to continue winning. That starts with Saturday’s matchup against a much-improved ETBU squad that gave UMHB a run in the second half when the two played in Belton on Oct. 5.
Jake Wright’s debut at quarterback against Howard Payne went well, especially in terms of the early success in the passing game. Wright completed each of his first eight passes and led UMHB on three first-half scoring drives, recording a pair of touchdowns through the air. He finished his first start under center with 268 passing yards, the most for a UMHB QB in his first start since Jase Hammack threw for 292 in the 2018 season opener against Albright. The offense as a whole put together a solid performance in Brownwood, with the rushing attack accounting for 216 yards, led by Daunte Blake’s 76 yards. Entering this week, The Cru is the only team averaging more than 200 yards per game on the ground in ASC play (217.3). There is still work to be done on the offensive side of the ball, however, particularly in the passing game, as UMHB has the lowest passing efficiency of any team in conference play. But coming out of an open date, UMHB is in a good position to take a step forward, especially against a Tiger defense that allowed 253.0 passing yards/game through the first round of conference play.
Defensively, this is a Crusader defense with consistent play up front and a tendency to force plenty of turnovers. Against HPU, UMHB intercepted three passes. In the first meeting with ETBU, The Cru recovered four fumbles. In both cases, several of those takeaways translated directly to points. Through seven games, the Crusaders’ 10 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries both rank No. 1 in the ASC. UMHB has 10 sacks this season, six of which have come in the last three games, and beyond just the sack totals, the defensive front has developed a reputation for causing havoc in the backfield. Opposing quarterbacks have been under duress on a consistent basis throughout this season, forcing off-balance throws and incomplete passes, evidenced by the 57.4% completion percentage against UMHB’s defense this season. That said, it was seen against both ETBU and Hardin-Simmons that even on plays when the quarterback was forced from the pocket, the agility of the signal caller allowed for an extra second or two to take advantage of a breakdown or void in the secondary, leading to a significant gain. Harmon also noted after the HSU loss that the defensive backs and linebackers were being drawn in by the run over the course of the game, opening the door for completions over the top of the defense, several of which ended up as 30+ yard gains. Expect that to be an emphasis point for the defense in this one, considering the capability of ETBU’s passing attack. Staying aggressive in pass coverage is certainly an aspect of things to watch as UMHB goes toe-to-toe with ETBU for a second time, having gained some familiarity with Tiger QB Kaden Brown and his receiving corps in the first meeting four weeks ago.
As far as special teams goes, UMHB kicker Edwin Lopez is coming off a solid showing at HPU, his first career game with multiple made field goals. Lopez sent three kicks through the uprights in the second half from 42, 22, and 29 yards, earning ASC Special Teams Player of the Week honors as a result. He has also contributed well in the punting game during league play, averaging an ASC-best 41.1 yards/punt. Da’Marion Morris and TJ Rone are the Crusaders’ primary two punt and kick returners.
3 Players to Watch
RB Kamerin Ferguson: With 411 yards on the ground so far, Ferguson has proven to be one of UMHB’s most impactful transfers this season. The junior is second in the ASC in yards/game (82.2) and third in rushing touchdowns (5). He rushed for 100 yards and two scores against the Tiger defense the last time around, and is in position for another big performance on Saturday.
WR Jerry Cephus: The senior set a new season-high for receptions at HPU, pulling in five passes for 84 yards and a touchdown. He will look to carry that over in yet another road duel in Marshall, and now leads The Cru in receiving yardage (181), averaging 16.5 yards/catch,
DE Justin Hines-Moore: At 6.5 tackles for loss, the junior leads UMHB in that category, and is looking for his sixth straight game with at least 1.0 tackle for loss against ETBU. He has been one of the more consistent contributors on the defensive line, plugging gaps against the run, and putting pressure on the quarterback in defending the pass. Hines-Moore also had 11 solo tackles and 4.0 sacks in his second season with The Cru.
Scouting the Tigers
In seven games, ETBU has already tied its overall win total from each of the previous three years, carrying a 5-2 mark into Saturday’s home duel. With an unblemished 4-0 record inside Ornelas Stadium this season, the Tigers are pushing towards winning five games at home for the first time since the 2003 season. ETBU has two more chances to do so, facing UMHB on Saturday and hosting Hardin-Simmons on Nov. 9. The Tigers’ four home wins are already the most in a season since 2014.
With a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Smith, ETBU has turned heads nationally with its high-scoring offense. Averaging 43.2 points per game, the Tigers are No. 24 nationally in scoring average, and utilize a fairly balanced style between the run and the pass. ETBU is also 15th in Division III in total offense, putting up 482.7 yards per game. And notably, ETBU is the only team in the country with zero interceptions thrown this season, a credit to starting QB Kaden Brown. No other team in D-III, even those that throw the ball sparingly, has an unblemished passing record so far. Of course, if there’s a team left on ETBU’s schedule that could change that, it is more than likely UMHB, considering The Cru recorded at least one interception in four of its five countable games up to this point. Brown has established himself as an exceptional passer in his first year at ETBU, highlighted by a 67.8% completion rate, an average of 14.1 yards per completion, and of course, the 17-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In saying that, it helps that the Tigers have high-quality receiving targets downfield, and two of the ASC’s top three pass-catchers are amongst that group. Zay Thomas and Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox are both averaging over 18 yards per catch and their big-play capability—each has a 78-yard reception this season—is a notable aspect of what makes the ETBU passing attack so dangerous. When it comes to the run game, ETBU is averaging 178 yards per contest in league play, with sophomore Paul Woodard (76.0 yards/game against ASC opponents) accounting for the majority of the carries.
Defensively, the line has been a strength, similar to UMHB. Senior defensive end Jahkamian Carr is tied for second in the ASC with 4.0 tackles for loss in conference action, along with 7.0 total tackles per game. And as a unit, looking at stats from conference games only, ETBU’s eight sacks is the most in the league. But there certainly have been some weaknesses revealed as well, with the Tigers’ allowing the most first downs (26.0/game), highest third-down conversion rate (59.5%), and highest fourth-down conversion rate (100%, 3-of-3) within ASC play. The pass defense in particular has been troublesome at times, though ETBU held each of its first four opponents below 200 yards through the air and limited Hardin-Simmons to 222 passing yards last week, which was barely below the Cowboys’ average.
3 Players to Watch
WR Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox: Llanas-Wilcox played his high school ball not far from UMHB in Cameron, Texas, and in his first college game in Belton earlier this season, the sophomore caught four passes for 122 yards and a score. He is ETBU’s leading receiver in terms of touchdown catches, with eight, and is averaging 72.8 yards/game.
RB Paul Woodard: ETBU’s passing game is a significant threat, but you can’t forget about Woodard’s running ability at the same time. He comes off a solid showing at HSU, in which he ran for 132 yards on 15 carries (8.8 yards/carry), marking the first time an opposing ballcarrier ran for 100+ yards against the Cowboys since UMHB’s Kenneth Cormier Jr. on Oct. 28, 2023. On the season, Woodard is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, and had 61 yards on 13 attempts against UMHB earlier this season.
LB Keewan Grismore: The junior leads ETBU in tackles, with 49.0, in addition to three pass breakups and an interception in pass coverage. He also has 6.0 tackles for loss and is a key contributor in both aspects of the defense, against both the run and the pass.
Storylines
Third quarter offense: Both UMHB and ETBU, despite their offensive successes, have been inconsistent in the early part of the second half in a majority of their games this season. ETBU has not scored more than seven points in the third quarter in any of its seven games, including in all four of its 40+ point performances. UMHB has dealt with a similar absence of scoring in the third quarter, with the HPU win being the first in which the Crusaders put more than seven points on the board. Yet, none of the 13 points came directly from the offense, with two field goals and a pick-six. Look for both teams to aim for stronger second-half starts in what is expected to be a competitive game through the final two quarters.
Battle in the trenches: As was seen in the first meeting between these two, the battle up front between ETBU’s defensive line and UMHB’s offensive line was present all the way through. ETBU’s defensive front brings pressure consistently, and look no further than their 13 sacks this season as proof. The Cru has allowed just one sack in ASC play this season and only three in its five countable games thus far, which will make getting pressure on Wright a tall task. Not only will the battle in the trenches play a role in the effectiveness of UMHB’s passing, but it will also impact how well The Cru is able to run the ball.
High-level impact from Hill: Linebacker Durand Hill, in his fifth year with the program, moved past Josh Kubiak and Raylon Hickey in the career record book against HPU in the career solo tackles category. Hill has 148 solo tackles in a UMHB uniform, which ranks No. 5 all-time in program history. He is 15 solo tackles away from tying Jerrell Freeman for the fourth-most by a Crusader.
Week 9 ASC schedule
Howard Payne at Hardin-Simmons, Friday, 7:00 p.m.
Mary Harrdin-Baylor at East Texas Baptist, Saturday, 1:00 p.m.
ASC Standings
- Hardin-Simmons: 3-0 ASC, 7-0 overall
- Mary Hardin-Baylor, 2-1 ASC, 3-2 overall
- East Texas Baptist: 1-2 ASC, 4-2 overall
- Howard Payne, 0-3 ASC, 1-5 overall
