BELTON — Three weeks remain in the 2024 season for UMHB Football and The Cru’s playoff fate is still to be determined. With a 3-1 record against Division III opponents, the Crusaders are currently in a favorable position for a playoff bid, whether that comes via the automatic bid through winning the American Southwest Conference or in the form of an at-large berth.
The NCAA’s NPI system, used to select all 12 at-large playoff teams this season, currently has UMHB as the fifth team off the board if the season ended today. But it doesn’t. And the upcoming two-game stretch for The Cru, who are ranked No. 24 in the D3football.com Top 25, is going to have a lot to say in terms of where UMHB’s season goes from here.
ETBU played The Cru tight in Belton, taking a 28-27 lead early in the fourth quarter before UMHB pulled back in front for a 42-28 victory. Now the two meet in Marshall, on a field in which the Tigers are a perfect 4-0 this season. Coming off a 16-point loss at Hardin-Simmons a week ago, ETBU is desparate to get back in the win column and beat UMHB for the first time since 2003. The Cru heads to Marshall out of a bye week, and a win over the Tigers would set up a pivotal rematch at Hardin-Simmons on Nov. 9. The stakes are high in this second round of league play, and UMHB head coach Larry Harmon has made sure his team is well-equipped and properly-prepared for the challenge.
“There’s a lot of self-scout,” Harmon said Monday. “Whenever you’re playing a double round robin, self-scout is almost as important as scouting the other team. Because you don’t want to be laying out some strong tendencies that give the other team the advantage on you.”
Harmon met with the media at his weekly press conference on Monday to discuss the matchup with ETBU and the second half of ASC play as a whole. Here are three takeaways from that media availability.
Schematic additions on both sides of the ball
Preparing for each of its three conference opponents a second time through comes with its own set of challenges. This season’s schedule is unlike any that UMHB has played in past years, and the difficulty is compounded by the fact that two of the other three ASC programs rank in the Top 60 nationally in NPI.
With that comes schematic challenges. ETBU went toe-to-toe with The Cru in Belton just four weeks ago, so there’s a familiarity aspect between the two programs that is rarely seen in college football. UMHB gained a feel for how ETBU runs its offense and defense, and the same went for ETBU in relation to The Cru’s base sets and overall tendencies. While film is always part of the game prep, having actually gone up against the opponent within the season brings an entirely different dynamic into it because of the intricacies found in a game setting that aren’t always made clear through a screen. With that comes a necessary desire to make adjustments, aiming to keep the opponent on its toes. Harmon said early in his press conference that UMHB put the bye week to good use, adding some elements to their current schemes that should be effective in the next three weeks.
“Defensively we added some different pressures that we haven’t run yet,” Harmon noted. “We’ll give the same look that we gave them the first time but instead of being in base coverage, there’ll be some pressure coming off of it. So hopefully it gives the quarterback a little something else to think about.
“Offensively, we added some motions and moved some people around to get them into some different formations [which allows us] to use our strengths. We also spent quite a bit of time on special teams and what we want to do differently. We looked at the things we think will work against the three opponents that we played the first time. We saw how they lined up against us and I think we have a better idea of what we can do to expose what they did against us.”
A week ago at his press conference, Harmon talked about the difficulties that come with an open date at such a critical juncture of the season, especially after a momentum-building victory. He noted then that it’s “more of a challenge than a blessing,”, and echoed a similar sentiment Monday. “It’s always on a coach’s mind with the distractions and all the negative things that could happen,” he said.
However, Harmon made note that with the new wrinkles added to The Cru’s playbook in all three phases of the game, it kept the focus on pushing forwards, rather than falling into potential distractions or losing forward momentum.
“By adding to our offense, defense, and special teams throughout last week, we felt like we gave our kids things that stimulated them mentally and kept them engaged in practice,” Harmon said. “We kept the routine the same. So I think we’re in a good place there.”
UMHB aims to keep its success in the turnover battle going
In each of UMHB’s three victories this season against countable opponents, the Crusaders have won the turnover battle. And they’ve capitalized on those takeaways too, scoring twice after forcing turnovers against both UW-Whitewater and ETBU. Against Howard Payne, UMHB linebacker Joey Johnson returned an interception 30 yards to the end zone. The ability to come up with takeaways, often putting the offense in a favorable position to score, has been a key so far, evidenced by UMHB’s rank at the ASC’s No. 1 defense in both interceptions and fumble recoveries.
But ETBU’s offense presents a challenge when it comes to turnovers, particularly in the passing game. Tigers signal caller Kaden Brown has made a name for himself in his first year in Marshall, highlighted by his 17-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is the only starting quarterback in the league to have not thrown an interception yet in 2024. UMHB aims to change that on Saturday afternoon.
“You have to take every opportunity you can,” Harmon said, when asked about the importance of winning the turnover battle against ETBU. “You have to have your eyes right and you have to be punching at the ball. Their quarterback is very talented and you don’t quite get the same break on the ball against him that you do against some of the other guys in the conference.
“It’s going to be a challenge. The challenge is for our D-Line to be able to get the pressure on him to force some bad throws. Nobody’s done it yet, but we’re all trying to get somebody in his face to where we have a better chance of getting an interception.”
Harmon added that ETBU, who fumbled the ball away four times in the first meeting with UMHB, has leaned more on its run game as of late. 12 of the Tigers’ 19 first downs in last week’s 38-22 loss at Hardin-Simmons came on the ground, with Paul Woodard averaging 8.8 yards/carry on 15 attempts and Hymond Drinkard averaging 8.5 yards/carry on a season-high 11 carries.
“They’ve changed a little bit and they’re running the ball more, trying to be a little more physical than they were the first time we played them,” Harmon continued. “I think they’re still finding their identity on offense and they had some success running it against Hardin-Simmons. I think we’re going to have some opportunities to punch the ball out and then have some opportunities to be in the throwing lanes with the tags when they try to control who our extra add is in the box.”
Pursuing the 21-point margin
When it comes to in-game scenarios, the double round-robin schedule has brought an especially notable change to the equation. The probability of a tie for the ASC title increased with each conference team playing the others twice, making the head-to-head result between two tied teams no longer quite as useful as a tiebreaker. In past seasons, such as 2009, when Mississippi College and UMHB finished tied at 7-1, Mississippi College’s 17-14 win over the Cru in the lone regular season meeting between the two gave the Choctaws the automatic bid to the playoffs.
But in the case of this season, if UMHB and Hardin-Simmons were to split their regular season series and go 2-0 against both ETBU and Howard Payne, a tie at the top wouldn’t be broken by direct head-to-head result. The second tiebreaker, of a record against each conference opponent in descending order—in this case a grand total of just two programs—would be ineffective as well, since both The Cru and the Cowboys won each of their two games against ETBU and HPU.
What’s next? Insert the 21-point tiebreaker. As was covered in a piece by Dave Campbell’s Texas Football on Monday, this tiebreaker is similar to many used in high school football, with point differential being the determinant. In the ASC, the max point differential that can be counted from a single game is 21 points. Which makes it the objective UMHB is aiming at entering each league game. So far, the Crusaders have only recorded a margin of victory at or above 21 against Howard Payne in a 41-0 shutout.
And the point differential doesn’t stop with the two tied teams. Since Hardin-Simmons defeated UMHB by 23 in the first meeting (again, only 21 of those points will count towards HSU’s differential against The Cru), UMHB has a chance to return the favor and win by at least 21 in Abilene on Nov. 9. If that is accomplished, the point differential conversation would be carried down to UMHB and HSU’s differentials against ETBU first, then Howard Payne if the ETBU differentials don’t determine a winner. So beating every remaining conference opponent by at least 21 is the primary goal for The Cru to be in the best position for the ASC title.
All of this to say that it adds another element to every conference game, regardless of the opponent, when the margin is fewer than 21. Now, there’s a push to score late in games even while up two scores, as opposed to customarily taking a conservative approach and running as much time off the clock as possible. Onside kicks, trick plays, and aggressive passing by a team up by double-digits aren’t likely to be questioned in the same way they’d be in a normal year, as everyone on both sidelines is aware of the pursuit of 21-point margins. UMHB beat ETBU by just 14 in the first contest, so the objective to add to that point differential against the Tigers is something Harmon has continued talking to his team about as the second half of ASC play rolls ahead.
“We talked about it. We talked about the situation we had when we played East Texas Baptist the first time,” Harmon said. “We were pretty aggressive at the end of the first half, trying to get another score, and we threw an interception which took that opportunity from us. We had a great turnover on defense and had the ball sitting inside the 30 when we got tackled with just under a minute left. A penalty that took us back 15 yards and we ended up just kneeling it out instead of trying to score because I didn’t want anything bad to happen.
“So we’ve just been talking about that situation and how important these points [are]. Understanding how important it is for us to come out fast and furious to where you have a chance to get up by two or three possessions. That’s something that we’ve spent a lot of time, especially last week, talking about.”
